NOPA Crush Numbers Better Than Expected

Good Morning! Paul Georgy with the early morning commentary for June 16, 2017.

Grain Markets are mixed as traders even positions ahead of the weekend and await updated forecast maps. Outsides markets will look to Michigan Sentiment for the most recent gauge of consumer health.

NOPA Crush numbers, out yesterday, were better than expected with 149.246 million bushels crushed in May. Analysts were expecting a crush of just 143.192 mb. This was the second-best May on record (last year was 152.280 mb), and above April's 139.134.

Weekly export sales were reported yesterday for the week of June 2 to 8. Corn export sales totaled 614,250 metric tonnes (600,740 old crop), within the 600,000 - 900,000 tonne trade expectation. Total old crop sales come to 2.150 billion bushels so far. USDA's whole year goal for shipments is 2.225 billion. Since we don't ship everything that is sold each year our actual sales goal comes to 2.245. To hit USDA's goal we need 95 million in remaining sales.

Soybean export sales totaled 654,282 metric tonnes (340,249 old crop). This was within the 350,000 - 750,000 trade expectation. We have now sold 2.166 billion bushels of soybeans. USDA's whole-year shipment goal is 2.050. To hit their shipment goal we need sales of 2.086. We are already, as of June 8, over where we need to be by 80 million bushels.

Wheat's marketing year runs from June 1 - May 31, and yesterdays report covered the first full week of sales of the new crop year. 373,368 tonnes were sold in the latest week, within the 350,000 - 550,000 trade expectation. Between the sales made before June 1, and the recent numbers, we have sold 257 million bushels total, above the 240 five year average.

NOAA updated their long term weather forecast yesterday. For the month of July, the Midwest will see above normal temperatures, while precipitation is seen normal for all areas. For July - September they also see the Midwest in above normal temperatures. Precipitation is seen normal for most of the cornbelt. The Dakotas are expected to see above normal moisture.

Franceagrimer rates the French wheat crop at 74% good-to-excellent, a decline of 1% vs. last week.

Port workersin Argentina have halted the movement of at least 20 grain ships along the Parana River due to a wage strike.

The Rosario Grains Exchange has raised its estimate of the Argentine soybean crop up from 57.0 to 57.3 million tonnes, under USDA's latest 57.8 estimate. Their first wheat planting guess for the year comes to 5.6 million hectares. That would be an 8% increase over the previous year.

Funds were estimatedbuyers of 14,000 corn contracts, 4,000 soybeans, 10,000 wheat, 2,000 soymeal, and 7,000 soyoil in yesterday's trade.

Economic reports out this morning include Housing Starts and Building Permits at 7:30 AM CDT. Michigan Sentiment is due to be released at 9:00 AM.

Allendale’s Ag Leaders Conference Series – July 25th, 26th and 27th, 2017

Weather Outlook - July 25th 2:00 PM CST, Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc. will share his forecast for the remainder of this growing season and into harvest.

Grains & Oilseeds - July 26th 2:00 PM CST, Is it time to change your hedge strategy, or should you stick to your plan?

Livestock - July 27th 2:00 PM CST, Our livestock outlooks will address the big fundamental questions that the livestock markets are currently facing.

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The average cattle carcass (steers, heifers, cows, bulls) rose by 8 lbs in the latest week to now 778 lbs per head. That brings weights up from 1.9% under last year to now 1.8% under.

Allendale's Rich Nelson will be the guest for the CME Group "Market Movers" video on Monday. Joined by David Hightower, they will be discussing the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that is set for release on the 29th.

Dressed beef values were lower with choice down 1.29 and select down .13. The CME Feeder Index is 152.73. Pork cutout value isdown .17.

Markets At-A-Glance – 4:30 AM

  • Jul Corn - 3/4
  • Jul Beans +2 1/2
  • Jul Wheat +3
  • Jul Soymeal +.70
  • Jul Soy oil +.13
  • Sep Dlr -.12
  • Sep S&P +2.50
  • Jul Crude +.28
  • Aug Gold+2.80

Technical Chart of the Day

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